Changes in inventories from shipping companies can be judged, the current global trade showed initial signs of rebound, emerging markets and North America will become the most upside potential market. However, global trade and economic recovery is not a smooth road, the IMF reminds, if you want trade to become the engine of economic growth again, we must create trade corridors and opportunities.

　　Shipping giant Maersk Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Kerwin Sheng, recently said that current global trade has shown initial signs of rebound and the economic outlook for next year is more optimistic. The upcoming rebound in demand will be driven by consumption, not simply "inventory adjustment".

　　The shipping company has previously said that demand is generally weak as warehouses are full of "unwanted goods", consumer confidence has been dented and the supply chain has been hit hard. However, despite the difficult economic environment, emerging markets continue to show significant resilience.

　　For the time being, all of these conditions have eased, Kerwin said. "All the problems are spontaneously and self-improving, which means demand is bouncing back. Emerging markets and North America are expected to be the markets with the most upside potential."

　　South Korea, for example, which is highly sensitive to the global economy and is known as the "canary" of trade, has seen a slight rebound in its exports recently. Previously, South Korea's exports suffered a major blow, exports fell for 11 consecutive months. However, in August, the export decline narrowed. According to data released by the South Korean government, in August, South Korea's exports fell 8.4% compared to the same period a year earlier, while economists predicted a decline of 11.8%. The decline was also lower than the 16.5% in July.

　　The road to global trade and economic recovery has not been smooth. On the one hand, global economic activity remains constrained by rising interest rates. Current global inflation remains high, and global central banks are likely to continue to fight inflation for some time to come, putting pressure on demand through restrictive monetary policies.

　　On the other hand, global trade barriers and fragmentation have impacted global economic growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva said that the number of new trade barrier policies introduced by countries has almost tripled every year since 2019, reaching nearly 3,000 last year. Other forms of fragmentation such as technological decoupling, disruption of capital flows and immigration restrictions will also drive up costs.

　　In recent years, some countries, such as the United States, have used the so-called national security and ideology as a pretext to push for decoupling, chain-breaking, friendly-shore outsourcing, near-shore outsourcing and other anti-globalization initiatives, which have seriously undermined the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain, not only bringing significant impacts on the production and life of various countries, but also increasing the uncertainty of economic recovery. According to the forecast of the World Economic Forum, in the second half of this year, the geopolitical and economic relations among major economies will continue to be unstable and have a significant impact on the supply chain, especially the supply of key products may be subject to more impacts.

　　According to the IMF's latest forecast, global GDP growth will be just 3% per annum by 2028. Georgieva said, "If we want trade to be the engine of growth again, then we have to create trade corridors and opportunities."