Cainiao, in conjunction with Roland Berger, a world-renowned strategy consulting firm, recently released "Cross-border Air Freight Industry Outlook 2023". The study concludes that continued low ocean freight prices have led to a partial loss of cross-border air freight volume, but along with the restocking cycle, overall cross-border air freight volume is expected to gradually rebound by the end of 2023. In terms of different regions, Europe's cross-border air freight market remains under pressure in the short term, a situation that is expected to improve by the end of the year. Freight volumes in Asia are recovering steadily as internal trade strengthens.

According to the "China Cross-Border Air Cargo White Paper (2023)" recently released by Roland Berger, the cross-border air cargo market has experienced a brief boom after the epidemic, and along with the weakening of foreign trade demand and the release of capacity supply, supply and demand have flipped, once again resuming the industry's normalcy before the epidemic. Demand side of the industry chain redistribution of labor, high-end manufacturing to accelerate the sea, the supply side of the belly cabin capacity recovery, cargo aircraft delivery, shipping prices jump, the industry side of the logistics organization side of the ecological grouping, all affecting the future development of the air cargo market. In the long run, the market trend remains unchanged.

According to the above study, changes in the international situation have a profound impact on the flow of cross-border air cargo. Sino-European relations have broad prospects, European dignitaries have visited China, releasing positive signals that Sino-European cooperation is becoming more and more friendly, favoring the deepening of Sino-European economic and trade relations, and driving the growth of Sino-European road cargo volume in the long run. The easing of the situation in the Middle East and the "Belt and Road" drive, prompting China and the Middle East to deepen industrial cooperation. Automobiles, artificial intelligence and other high-end manufacturing accelerated overseas, steadily boosting the volume of cargo in the Middle East. In contrast, the U.S. has strengthened trade sanctions against China and introduced a series of measures to promote the decoupling of the Chinese industrial chain. Export restrictions on China cut off the supply chain of high-tech enterprises, and will reverse the cargo structure in the long term. This also makes the U.S.-China trade uncertainty.

From the perspective of industrial layout, Southeast Asian industrial chain transfer and high-end manufacturing accelerated overseas is reshaping the trade flow. Shippers supply chain decentralized layout claims superimposed on the labor advantages of Southeast Asia, 3C as a representative of the labor-intensive industries to Southeast Asia division of labor transfer. In this context, the upstream and downstream parts and components close contact with the Southeast Asian road to drive the growth of cargo volume. China and the final destination of the cargo volume may be impacted. China's manufacturing industry continues to optimize and upgrade to the high-end, including photovoltaic, electric vehicles, lithium batteries and other industries stand out in the global context, is accelerating along the "Belt and Road" to go to sea, the formation of new growth points in exports. Although still dominated by sea and rail transportation, the demand for upstream and downstream electronic components has been slightly driven by the long-term increase in air cargo volume.

From the perspective of timeliness, cross-border aviation capacity supply has been restored to the previous level. Overseas direct flight routes have been added at various points, and innovative initiatives such as customs declaration front-loading, differentiated security inspection, and freight forwarder hierarchical management have continued to be promoted, while regional cooperation regulations such as RCEP have ensured that the speed of customs clearance has been further improved. However, affected by market pressure, China's cross-border air cargo prices are down in 2023, and there may be excess capacity in the future.

Currently, air cargo is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Demand-side cross-border e-commerce B2Cs are relying more on all-cargo capacity to reach specialized cargo hubs rather than relying on bellyhold flights to traditional passenger hotspots. Against the background of the increase in all-cargo flights and the increase in the number of cases of "aircraft looking for cargo", enterprises in the industry may explore market segmentation opportunities in order to seize stable cargo, develop differentiated products in terms of cargo types, transportation routes, transportation modes, costs and timeliness, etc., and take the initiative in catering to the increasingly complex and diversified needs of customers, thus significantly enhancing the richness of their products.